제5판 2021.06.30

중판 2020.09.25

제4판 2019. 1. 15

제3판 2017. 6. 10

중판 2017. 2. 10

중판 2016. 2. 10

제2판 2015. 1. 15

중판 2013. 7. 20.

초판 2013. 1. 20.

지금 4차 산업혁명이 한창 진행 중이다. 4차 산업혁명은 제조업에 인공지능, 사물인터넷, 빅데이터 등 정보통신기술(ICT)을 접목하여 이룩하려는 기술혁명이다. 4차 산업혁명의 기본 핵심기술은 인공지능이다. 그런데 인공지능은 빅데이터를 기반으로 학습을 하고 데이터를 기반으로 정보를 제공한다. 따라서 빅데이터는 4차 산업혁명에서 원유와 같은 역할을 수행한다. 정보기술 기기의 발전으로 데이터는 매일 엄청나게 쏟아지고 있다. 이러한 빅데이터는 규모, 다양성, 스피드 등에 있어 과거에 사용되었던 데이터에 비해 엄청나기 때문에 비즈니스 분석론, 데이터 마이닝과 같은 새로운 빅데이터 분석기법이 출현하였다.

전통적인 통계학의 목적은 스몰 표본 데이터를 이용해서 최대한의 정보를 추출하려는 것이었다. 시간과 비용 등으로 말미암아 표본을 추출할 수밖에 없지만 데이터의 수집․처리․분석하는데 부담이 커서 최소한의 표본추출에 기반한 분석에 만족하여야만 하였다. 이제 데이터가 부족한 사회에서 넘치는 사회로 바뀌었다. 빅데이터 시대에는 표본 데이터가 아니라 전체 데이터를 가지고 분석할 수 있게 되었다.

본서는 전통적인 통계분석이론을 기본으로 한다. 여기서는 표본크기가 아주 중요하다. 예를 들면, 표본분포, 통계적 추정과 가설검정, 회귀분석에서는 제한된 표본크기를 전제로 이론을 전개한다. 따라서 빅데이터의 존재는 이러한 부문에서의 의사결정에 영향을 미친다.

데이터가 표본분포에서 표준오차에 미치는 영향, 신뢰구간의 폭에 미치는 영향, 가설검정에서 귀무가설의 기각 여부에 미치는 영향, 가설검정에서 p값에 미치는 영향 등에 관한 내용들을 본서에서 새롭게 설명하였다. 한편 데이터 마이닝에서는 회귀분석이 아주 중요한 역할을 하기 때문에 다중회귀모델에 관한 내용도 추가하였다.

일반적으로 통계학은 어렵고 복잡한 과목이라고 여기고 학생들은 기피하려는 경향이 많다. 왜냐하면, 공식도 많고 수식도 많아 계산하는 과정이 복잡하기 때문이다. 따라서 본서는 공부하는 학생 위주로 집필하였다. 개념과 원리는 이해하기 쉽도록 자세히 설명토록 하고 모든 계산 문제에 대해서는 주어진 데이터를 이용해서 손으로 문제를 풀고 또한 Excel을 사용해서 해답을 구하도록 하였다. 따라서 독자들은 도서출판 박영사의 홈페이지에 접속하여 해답을 다운로드 받아 활용하기 바란다.

한편 이 책을 교재로 채택하시는 강사님들을 위해서는 이들 해답집 외에 별도로 PowerPoint를 사용하여 만든 강의안을 준비하였으니 박영사 기획부에 연락하여 구하시기 바랍니다.

끝으로 본 개정판이 출판되기까지는 많은 분들의 배려와 수고가 있었다. 우선 박영사의 안종만 회장님의 협조와 배려에 대해 감사하다는 인사를 전하고자 한다.

또한 시간이 촉박한 가운데도 열정과 노력을 아낌없이 쏟아 부은 편집부의 전채린 과장께 심심한 사의를 표하고자 한다.

2021. 6. 23.

강금식

문제풀이 download 받는 방법

① www.pybook.co.kr에 접속한다.

② 「도서자료실」을 클릭한다.

③ 「손 사용 문제풀이」, 「Excel 활용 문제풀이」, 「예제와 풀이」를 download 받는다.

서울대학교 상과대학 경제학과 졸업 한국산업은행 조사부 근무

University of Nebraska대학원 졸업(경제학석사) University of Nebraska대학원 졸업(경영학박사, Ph.D.) 아주대학교 경영대학 부교수

한국경영학회 이사 한국경영과학회 이사 성균관대학교 경영학부 교수역임

저 서

EXCEL 경영학연습(형설출판사, 1999)

EXCEL 통계분석(박영사, 1999)

EXCEL 2002 활용 운영관리(박영사, 증보판 2003) EXCEL 생산운영관리(박영사, 제 2 개정판 2007, 공저) EXCEL 통계학(박영사, 제 2 개정판 2007, 공저) EXCEL 경영과학(박영사, 2007, 공저)

글로벌시대의 경영학(도서출판 오래, 2010, 공저) 알기쉬운 통계학(도서출판 오래, 제 2 개정판 2012, 공저) 알기쉬운 생산․운영관리(도서출판 오래, 2011, 공저) 품질경영(박영사, 전정판 1997)

EXCEL 활용 현대통계학(박영사, 제 4 판 2011)

제1 장 통계학의 이해

1.1 통계학의 의미 ······························································································· 3

1.2 통계학의 분류 ······························································································· 4

1.3 모집단과 표본 ······························································································· 7

1.4 데이터 마이닝 ····························································································· 13

4차 산업혁명 _ 13

빅데이터 _ 15

비즈니스 분석론 _ 16

인공지능 _ 19

데이터 마이닝 _ 20

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································· 22

제2 장 기술통계학Ⅰ：데이터의 정리 및 표현

2.1 데이터의 종류 ····························································································· 27

범주 데이터와 수치 데이터 _ 28

이산 데이터와 연속 데이터 _ 29

단변수 데이터와 다변수 데이터 _ 30

2.2 측정척도의 형태 ························································································· 32

명목척도 _ 32

서열척도 _ 33

구간척도 _ 34

비율척도 _ 34

2.3 도수분포표 ·································································································· 36

기본 개념 _ 36

도수분포표의 그래프 _ 37

2.4 범주 데이터의 정리 ···················································································· 37

도수분포표 _ 37

도수분포표의 그래프 _ 40

2.5 수치 데이터의 정리：이산 데이터 ····························································· 45

도수분포표 _ 45

도수분포표의 그래프 _ 46

2.6 수치 데이터의 정리：연속 데이터 ····························································· 47

도수분포표의 그래프 _ 50

2.7 EXCEL 활용 ································································································ 53

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································· 64

제3장 기술통계학Ⅱ：요약통계량

3.1 중심경향의 측정치 ······················································································ 73

산술평균 _ 74

중앙치 _ 75

최빈치 _ 76

평균, 중앙치, 최빈치의 비교 _ 77

3.2 산포의 측정치 ····························································································· 78

범위 _ 80

중간범위 _ 81

평균절대편차 _ 82

분산과 표준편차 _ 83

Chebyshev의 정리 _ 88

변동계수 _ 90

3.3 상대위치의 측정치 ······················································································ 91

백분위수 _ 92

사분위수 _ 93

Z 값 _ 94

3.4 형태의 측정치 ····························································································· 97

비대칭도 _ 97

첨도 _ 99

3.5 EXCEL 활용 ·······························································································100

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································108

제4장 확률이론

4.1 사상과 표본공간 ························································································113

4.2 집합이론 ····································································································118

집합의 개념 _ 118

집합의 종류 _ 119

4.3 확률의 정의 ·······························································································124

고전적 방법 _ 125

상대도수 방법 _ 125

주관적 방법 _ 127

4.4 확률의 공리 ·······························································································127

4.5 확률의 연산법칙 ························································································129

덧셈법칙 _ 129

조건확률 _ 132

곱셈법칙 _ 140

4.6 Bayes 정리 ································································································142

개념 _ 142

표의 이용 _ 144

4.7 EXCEL 활용 ·······························································································146

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································147

제5장 확률변수와 확률분포

5.1 확률변수 ····································································································155

5.2 확률분포 ····································································································157

이산확률분포 _ 158

연속확률분포 _ 160

5.3 확률함수 ····································································································161

확률질량함수 _ 162

확률밀도함수 _ 164

5.4 확률변수의 기대값과 분산 ·········································································167

기대값의 의미 _ 167

기대값의 특성 _ 168

분산 _ 169

5.5 결합확률분포 ·····························································································173

결합확률분포의 개념 _ 173

조건확률 _ 175

두 변수의 독립성 _ 176

5.6 공분산과 상관계수 ·····················································································177

공분산 _ 177

상관계수 _ 179

5.7 EXCEL 활용 ·······························································································180

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································184

제6장 확률분포Ⅰ：이산확률분포

6.1 베르누이 시행 ····························································································191

6.2 이항분포 ····································································································192

이항 확률질량함수의 이용 _ 193

이항확률표의 이용 _ 195

6.3 이항분포의 형태 ························································································197

6.4 이항분포의 기대값과 분산 ·········································································199

6.5 포아송분포 ·································································································202

개념 _ 202

포아송 확률질량함수의 이용 _ 203

포아송 분포표의 이용 _ 204

6.6 초기하분포 ·································································································206

개념 _ 206

초기하분포의 확률질량함수 _ 207

6.7 EXCEL 활용 ·······························································································209

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································211

제7장 확률분포Ⅱ：연속확률분포

7.1 확률밀도함수 ·····························································································217

7.2 정규분포 ····································································································219

정규분포의 사용 _ 219

정규곡선의 형태 _ 219

정규곡선의 특성 _ 220

7.3 표준정규분포 ·····························································································224

정의 _ 224

표준정규분포표의 이용 _ 230

정규분포의 응용 예 _ 238

7.4 이항분포의 정규근사 ·················································································241

7.5 지수분포 ····································································································243

개념 _ 243

지수분포의 확률 _ 245

7.6 EXCEL 활용 ·······························································································247

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································252

제8장 표본분포

8.1 표본추출 ····································································································259

표본조사의 필요성 _ 259

표본오차와 비표본오차 _ 260

8.2 표본추출 과정 ····························································································262

8.3 표본추출 방법 ····························································································263

확률 추출방법 _ 264

비확률 추출방법 _ 266

8.4 표본분포 ····································································································266

8.5 평균의 표본분포：복원추출 ······································································269

개념 _ 269

평균의 표본분포의 기대값과 분산 _ 273

평균의 표준오차 _ 275

8.6 평균의 표본분포：비복원추출 ··································································277

8.7 중심극한정리 ·····························································································281

표본크기의 영향 _ 281

모집단이 정규분포를 따를 때 _ 282

모집단이 정규분포를 따르지 않을 때 _ 284

8.8 비율의 표본분포 ························································································287

개념 _ 287

비율의 표본분포의 기대값과 표준편차 _ 289

이항분포의 정규근사 _ 292

유한 모집단에서의 표본비율의 표준편차 _ 293

8.9 EXCEL 활용 ·······························································································294

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································298

제9장 통계적 추정：한 모집단

9.1 점추정과 구간추정 ·····················································································305

9.2 추정량의 결정기준 ·····················································································306

불편성 _ 307

효율성 _ 308

일관성 _ 309

충족성 _ 310

9.3 신뢰구간 추정 ····························································································311

개념 _ 311

오차율 _ 313

9.4 모평균의 신뢰구간 ·····················································································314

모표준편차를 아는 경우 _ 314

모표준편차를 모르는 경우：소표본 _ 320

9.5 t 분포 ·········································································································320

모표준편차를 모르는 경우：대표본 _ 327

9.6 모비율의 신뢰구간 ·····················································································329

9.7 표본크기 결정 ····························································································331

모평균 추정 _ 331

모비율 추정 _ 334

9.8 모분산의 신뢰구간 ·····················································································336

χ2 분포의 특성 _ 337

모분산의 신뢰구간 _ 341

9.9 EXCEL 활용 ·······························································································344

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································348

제10장 가설검정：한 모집단

10.1 가설검정 ····································································································355

가설의 의미와 종류 _ 355

가설의 설정 _ 356

가설의 형태 _ 358

가설검정의 오류 _ 360

결정규칙 _ 362

가설검정의 순서 _ 366

10.2 모평균의 가설검정 ·····················································································367

모표준편차를 아는 경우 _ 368

모표준편차를 모르는 경우 _ 378

10.3 모비율의 가설검정 ·····················································································383

10.4 모분산의 가설검정 ·····················································································387

10.5 EXCEL 활용 ·······························································································390

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································395

제11장 통계적 추정과 가설검정：두 모집단

11.1 표본의 독립성과 종속성 ············································································403

11.2 두 표본평균 차이의 표본분포 ····································································404

11.3 두 모평균 차이에 대한 추정과 검정 ··························································406

독립표본 _ 406

대응표본 _ 414

11.4 두 모비율 차이에 대한 추정과 검정 ··························································418

11.5 두 모분산 비율에 대한 추정과 검정 ··························································423

F 분포 _ 423

두 모분산 비율의 추정 _ 427

두 모분산 비율의 검정 _ 428

11.6 EXCEL 활용 ·······························································································431

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································438

제12장 분산분석

12.1 분산분석의 의미 ························································································447

12.2 실험설계의 기본 개념 ················································································448

12.3 분산분석의 기본 원리 ················································································450

12.4 일원배치법：반복 수가 같은 경우 ····························································452

12.5 이원배치법：반복없는 경우 ······································································462

12.6 이원배치법：반복 있는 경우 ·····································································468

12.7 EXCEL 활용 ·······························································································475

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································480

제13장 회귀분석과 상관분석

13.1 회귀분석과 상관분석 ·················································································487

13.2 산포도 ········································································································488

13.3 단순선형회귀모델 ······················································································491

확정적 모델과 확률적 모델 _ 491

모집단 단순회귀모델 _ 492

표본 회귀모델 _ 494

오차항에 대한 가정 _ 496

13.4 최소자승법 ·································································································498

13.5 표본회귀선의 적합도 검정 ·········································································502

13.6 상관분석 ····································································································510

공분산 _ 510

상관계수 _ 512

13.7 표본회귀선의 유의성 검정 ·········································································515

13.8 종속변수 Y 의 추정과 예측 ········································································520

13.9 EXCEL 활용 ·······························································································526

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································534

제14장 다중회귀분석

14.1 다중회귀모델 ·····························································································541

다중선형회귀모델 _ 541

다중회귀모델의 가정 _ 543

14.2 최소자승법 ·································································································544

14.3 다중표본회귀식의 적합도 검정 ·································································546

추정치의 표준오차 _ 546

결정계수 _ 548

14.4 다중회귀모델에 대한 유의성 검정 ·····························································550

F 검정 _ 550

t 검정 _ 552

14.5 종속변수 Y 의 예측 ····················································································555

14.6 범주적 독립변수 ························································································557

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································561

제15장 χ2 검정과 비모수통계학

15.1 모수통계학과 비모수통계학 ······································································569

15.2 모집단 분포의 적합도 검정 ·······································································570

모비율의 검정 _ 571

모집단 분포의 검정 _ 575

15.3 두 변수 간의 독립성 검정 ··········································································580

15.4 EXCEL 활용 ·······························································································584

▶ 연습문제 ········································································································586

부표

A. 이항분포표 ··································································································· 592

B. e-μ의 값 ······································································································· 595

C. 포아송분포표 ······························································································· 596

D. 표준정규분포표 ···························································································· 598

E. 난수표 ··········································································································· 599

F. t 분포표 ········································································································· 600

G. χ2분포표 ······································································································ 601

H. F 분포표 ······································································································· 603

◈ 영문색인 ················································································································ 607

◈ 국문색인 ················································································································ 612

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